Abstract

ABSTRACT This is the first study to empirically determine the potential for data-driven personalization in the context of chronic primary pain (CPP). Effect sizes of psychological treatments for individuals with CPP are small to moderate on average. Aiming for better treatment outcomes for the individual patient, the call to personalize CPP treatment increased over time. However, empirical evidence that personalization of psychological treatments can optimize treatment outcomes in CPP is needed. This study seeks to estimate heterogeneity of treatment effect for cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) as the psychological treatment approach for CPP with the greatest evidence base. For this purpose, a Bayesian variance ratio meta-regression is conducted using updated data from 2 recently published meta-analyses with randomized controlled trials comparing CBT delivered face-to-face to treatment-as-usual or waiting list controls. Heterogeneity in patients with CPP would be reflected by a larger overall variance in the post-treatment score compared with the control group. We found first evidence for an individual treatment effect in CBT compared with the control group. The estimate for the intercept was 0.06, indicating a 6% higher variance of end point values in the intervention groups. However, this result warrants careful consideration. Further research is needed to shed light on the heterogeneity of psychological treatment studies and thus to uncover the full potential of data-driven personalized psychotherapy for patients with CPP.A Bayesian variance ratio meta-regression indicates empirical evidence that data-driven personalized psychotherapy for patients with chronic primary pain could increase effects of cognitive behavioral therapy.